OIL IN CUBA

The information came last week about oil founded in huge reserves in north of Cuba Island in Caribe Sea.The amunt  only 20 millions of barrels.USA reserves are 29 millions.So the fact if is  confirmated in not a no importance issue.Many people has never understand the american embargo to cuban regime.Is a anacronism in XXI century.Besides comunism if was the reason is no longer a  military menace.Less cuban weapons and an tiny country with less population of one state of USA.Or the hidden reason is that Cuba in fact was part or “influence area” of America.Is a more eufemistic  way of dont say the back yard.Certainly many people back  a hard approach to mantain the embargo.Is a paradox that a very pragmatic political establishment has no a good answer   to the question of if  is coherent  the rule of a lak of liberties in Cuba is the  important reason.But this works for all  political sides.In the past at less in Latin America USA has backed wright wing totalitarian  governments bus was not a embargo as the kind of Cuba.And if the situation evolves to free elections anf  a left wing coalition  is elected?.Bolivia,Equator has left wing  elected governments with no embargo.A rational approach must be the task for a new american administration.Oil is a scarce resource, and is near USA both countries needed each other.I dont know  the  Obama  ideas about cuban embargo but I guess is more flexible in consideration of the economy heritage.Could be more   pragmatic and balance  a oil  policies very erratic who has  in Irak the consecuences of a bad taken decition.

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THE LAST HOURS

In this time over 27 millions of american people has voted for president.Long files of voter are been till 9 hours in lines.Analyst says tha could be the most voted election of the last 100 years in America.The weather forecast are good for tomorrow.Poll indicates tan Obama imposes over Mc Cain even in traditional republicans states.About 130 million peoples is the voter universe expected.In Florida about 3.6 millions has voted and 3,1 in Texas and over 2 million in North Carolina.
This one is not a ordinary election,is The Election.Never before USA has faced a election with so many problems in domestic affairs the Wall Street crisis extended to other branches of economy and even to the rest of the world is the great after 1930 depresion.But never before many people has much hopes in a man,Obama is a simbol of a new and fresh social face after a caotics events that began with american errors in international politics and most errors in economical evaluation.
November the 5 could be the burial of many obsolet political and economical practices in USA and perhaps in many areas of the world.Could be the decline of power of money barons even in other countries and a surge of a new kind of power based in real needs of people.A more respecfull approach to environment respect,the decline as a blind market as rector of economies,a more democratic control over the social and economics resolutions over job,education,shelter and health politics.A return of american soldiers to his country no only from Irak also from Europa besides form many places without international mandats.Is posible that the economical unrest continues by a while but the world must be very different after the 4 November election.A historical dayt is one that the events determine his denomination.Nobody can establish by decret when a kind of event must be reach the degree.But certain all say that Obama election must be a historical fact.Is not only the man,is what the man represent.Is the result of the best of american political tradition.Is the result of the oldest foundation of american freedom and dreams.Never before a man unknown to the rest of people in all world represented so many hopes of a best and more decent way of life in a uncertain moment.Condition of life is the risk and USA must elected a life option,because the other is past and this past has many reminds of many people who in a silent way has stoic faced a cruel social order in name if a cartoon democracy whose fruits are famine,diseases,and ignorance.The other fruit has vanished an are only no values papers is stock markets and only a number in computers of institution in practical bankurapcy.
More Information over the last events:
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THE DEFLATION DANGER

 

 

In New York Times a article over the deflation danger as a consecuence of the last events of financial crisis.Nobody imagine  a few month ago the sharp fall in prices of oil,copper even in foods and all remind the Japan crisis in 1980 when consume felt over  a decade when  deflation was instaled.Even if China the insaciable dragon has ralentized the hunger for goods after all the traditional market of their products are in troubles.Not only USA also all the economies even the no indusrialized buying China made products.Before was a deflation  in 1980 in Japan who last a decade but was as all the  before crisis  circunscribed to a economy as Mexico,the oil crisis in a group of countries .Now the crisis is a world one.Never before the economist hace so many questions unsolved and so many  no satifactory answers.Even  economy gurus are perplex about who economy fact evolved day to day.A only monetary concern has showed is not enough to solve the situation.Now with the nightmare of deflation the unemployement concern is on surface.The facts are similar in certain way to economies of post II war,a new post war economy es necesary?.After all the consecuences in a few years of the dangerous combination os money market default,fall in  foodstuffs,and unemployement never before could be came int he same time.But is a oportunity to agree a new international new deal with more healthy foundations.A environment concern,a new institutionality who avoid speculation an a libertinaje of economics actors.A desicentivation of a luxus economy for a few segment of population,The one third poor segment of world people as tarjet of  wold economical  efforts could be a ethic response to a crisis who  was made by forget of  a comon sense  social behaviour based in a selfish concept of humanity.

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THE STATE OF DEMOCRACY

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The Economist are a interesting article about a survey made over a 168 universe of countries over the democracy condition in 2008.A score was made in 5 factor basis;cultural political,free liberties practices,organization of the country,level of political participation and pluralism level.
Some facts the highest democracies are nordic countries,Sweden(1),Norway(2),Iceland(3),Netherland(4),(4)Denmark(5),Finland(6).This are called in the survey,Strong democracies are 30 countries and USA is in 18 ranking and UK 21 place.The other countries of this highest level are european or asian industrialized countries.
A second level are least consolidated democracies formed by 51 countries most form East Europa ex URRS an latinoamerican countries.Chile is ranked 32.In this group the least developped factor in democracies participation level an cultural politics.In fact is 50% or a half of the factor for the first group of countries.Besides in you compare this levels with the achievements in economics,youcan say that this one are highest.I say the weackness of emergent economies of free status as India,Mexico or Brazil is radicated in the lowest participation level and the low degree of cultural politic. The neck of the bottle development of democracy is rather a political issue than a economic one.YOu can argue as a Devil lawyer why some countries located in the worst level in the ranking and with dictatorial regimes shows a relative high level of economic development as Chine or Rusia.Certain but also in the past many strong men regime in the latinoamerican countries showed high PIB increases in the past as Brazil or Chile.But this deveppment was nos sustanaible en the long time and more important has a high level in inequity.Today with the complexities of societies and economies it was more dificult to achieve the same results with imposed economic politics.
The problem is that if people dont show interest in politics when things go down en economy a easy temptation is populism,but for this you need money as some oil countries,but when the pocket is empty the only alternative is a rising hard regime as some of African countries.When is joined a lack in interest on politics and social institutions no have access to participation caudillism appears.Is not necesary be a left wing land lord of the war when populations need food an water.This is one of the
weakness of a free democracy model that only see the market achievments as indicators of freedom.Freedom has no sense for a empty stomach.
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AMERICA

America was some of the beautifull mural from Rufino Tamayo the mexican muralist and one of the two remaning is USA.Painted for a Houston bank was made by Tamayo alone in five months of work,made in Mexico was loaded to Usa after.The mural represent America like a nude woman in a abstract way as a simbol of pre colombin latin american civilization.By his features has been compared to Guernica of Picaso painted by the artist after the bombardement of Guernica village during the spanish civil war.
In private hands by 15 years an avaluated in 9 million US be sell en future.Tamayo has murals also ikn Unesco headquarters at Paris and Onu.
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ONLY SIX DAYS MORE

To the begining of withdraw of american troops on Irak soil.To rebuild world public faith in USA international politic.To a more sensitive approach to environement issues as Tokio protocol subcription.
To a more progresist understanding of social choices of other countries in latinoamerican area.To end with a colective paranoia en international circulation of people seeing a potencial enemy of foreign people and also the violation of freedom of people at the private comunication.To end with Guantanamo prison.To iniciate a dialog with all government to face economic crisis.To finish with racism and segregation of people by income power or ideologies.
In a dark moment of world,we can wait six days.

THE BATTLE OF CORONEL

 

Next month  November is the 94 aniversary of the navy battle of Coronel  with  2 british warships sunken and 1.654 mariner all british dead by german forces.Graf   Spee was the chief of german  fleet  and Admiral C.Cradock the british comander.After a month of this Graf Spee fleet was destruied en falkand island confrontation .It was the first time  after 1812 a lost sea battle  for England Royal Navy.I read a little about the facts in a time when  ships has a very bad comunication sistem,must only remember Titanic tragedy , with no proportions about the modernity  and capacity of a huge  steam ship and the scarce of a comunication reduced to telegrahic Morse sistem who induced a error by bad intepretation of signals.Here happens the  same,imagine 2  fleet in the very corner of the world 2 admirals and about 4.000 mens receiving instrutions.Added a stormy sea by nature the Pacific ocean.Both navies has aditional task forces en other places and both knew that were the end results of a first confrontation be a pirrical  victory because the retalation came as in the history happens.South american coast has been a election place in I and II world of refugee place to germans  ships as happens after in Rio de la Plata,before was the chilean  south coast.After the battle never happens other navy incident at Coronel bay near Concepcion and many people ignore that in this place happened one of the greatest sea battle of all world.Only a simple reminder in stone in the local cementery reminds the facts and now is a quiet fishing port over a  natural burial and trh iron remainders if some one  stay there of  two the most greatest  war ships of  the Royal Navy when XX began.
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THE LAST 8 DAYS

I have a doubt and a hope if the american election if Obama is elected changes the way of economy.A Mc Cain election no change nothing an even worst the crisis deepening and make more slow the recovery.I read today that ultra conservantism has a new strategy to face a eventual Mc Cain lost in 8 days more.Instead of a change to progresism they say that is only a personal triumph of Obama and no a fail of the economical model heritage from Reagan times.
Y have reading about history of years 30 depresion.More and more with the diferences of times seems me very similar in his development and uncertain end.Is like a war when begins all people is worried about how many death happens each day,but when this worsen public opinion experimented a fatalism
bias to face wars facts.Is like a terminal disease when with time goes a little relief in pain and pronostic is welcomed inside a bad diagnosis.May be a nature defense preparing our bodies and minds to a unvoidable end.Today the in Asia and Europe again the numbers are red,but is not susprise and no news .People must continues his lifes.I think that the worst en politics ans economy is a credibility lost in economics actors.
A scientific magazine explain the economic fear by short circuit in human brain located in amygdala on rear brain.Said that brain works well when predictable electrical waves are sending to this place where is the fear and pleasure reward as emotions.Also that feeling are part of economical choices.Many choices to economists are irrational one.The problem says that when many umpredictable events arrives to brain this one begin to make errors.And people must in a unconcient mode impulse to take a action, of any kind without references if worsen the economic personal situation. And run following the mayority like is a stadium stammpide
Is like the people in a earth movement run away of homes to street that is in some ocasion a most dangerous place.Sell shares because all people make the same.Also say that put out of bak the money and deposit at sleeping place could be a worst election.But we are humans an nobody accept
unfair practices as loose money besides without rational explanation.
Obama is not God ,only God can make in religous simbolism the creation in 7 days.Recover american and world economy has no magic recipes but a less ideologized administration geared by Obama may be a better option than ultra conservantism to a earthquake economy and a frighten people.

EMERGENTS OR FALLING ECONOMIES?

Today in The Economist is a post about the financial crisis efects in emergents economies.After reading it seem me that is not clear that emergent economies could be the engine to put out of recesion world economy if the actual industrialized countries headed by american economies enter at end in this condition.The same article give a strong reason the interdepent or globalized ties specially at banking systems.Many emergent tiny countries need financial aid or fresh money to recover after the consecuences of Wall Street problems and the only international institution is FMI but all know that this one was a post II war creation to solve the economies of fifties.I doubt that FMI recipes can solve a generalized “hunger ” for money of emergent economies as eastern eurponean economies as ex URRS countries.Also in latin American countries.Besides the strong medicine solutions can work in the past with many strong men at power as  happened in South America in the seventies decade.With a growing international public opinion against schock terapies in economies must be a no viable after  the ethic effects of bad practices of banking institution ,today mostly in fact beyond state dependence.Is true that if some countries don growth above certain per year amount as China over 7 % we can see great social discontent of a a population that has enter in consumism wave.For less in other places in the past social riots came.China or Rusia lending money as a new bank barons to other countries?In fact in a new economical lanscape the priority must be internal demands to mantain operating his own economies.Rusia has reserves but with oil price falling must be use this reserves inside the country.
Other aditional problem is in a recesive world China export to USA ,Europe,or emergent economies also
slow his rate.Made in China cars or other industrialized goods has no buyers.The fall in comodities prices in the last month is a first yellow light warning that the emergent economies leaded by great countries as China,India,Brazil or Rusia has not well carburated to replace developped economies leaded by USA.Besides only Rusia and China has internal posiblities to extend without drastic internal political reforms the internal market to replace the international one.
One solution is a political one make a new international economic institutionality with more power to
avoid new world crisis and to sustainable growth.The market to open is the underdevoped markets as
tarjet of world economies.In this frame ONU and other world organization gain and restaure credibility eroded during the last decade.Is utopia?,it posible but in all the human economical history has been inflection moments when economies lost terrain against political  revolutionary facts.Is blindness to avoid the influence on French revolution of Paris of the hunger citoyens.Or Russia poor peasant populations aims.
These turning points in societies histories are not ruled by market laws and ignore the first signals could be al least a bad business to the leading elites of rich countries.The history is plenty of other economic groups who vanished as consecuences of noisy or silent revolutions backed by very simple
slogans as Liberty,Equality or Fredoom more powerfull that marketing actual one who call to buy,but you dont can buy when you dont have a productive work,a decent access to education or health.All this is more “dangerous” to free market economies that the actual or repetitive recesives crisis.

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1854541,00.html
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ICELAND THE LOST PARADISE?

Iceland is a country located in Atlantic Sea with 320.000 people was a model to follow in recent years.A per capita income of US 51.000,no regular army,no delincuence,a growing economy.But 14 October all changes,a 77% falling in shares must be asumed.The country request aid from EEU,Rusia and FMI.This are the facts of only one country.Some reflections very subjetive and personal about the no economics consecuences of the world financial crisis.
People in all world is concerned about Wall Street financial crisis most see only a economical temporary bad cycle bus the hidden real issue is this one is the end of a era of a vision of world concerned only about money but not over the peoples.The end also about a lack of democratic practices over a market free of ethics frames ruled by a tiny group of bankers,politicians and money owner,worst no money people who speculates with money of other people.Human life has not be a paradise but when mankind take the decision of life in society the first rule was be respect the rigth of the others to share the fruits of growth in equalitarian terms.This is not the real state of things.Many poor people must wait for a long time after this crisis to a better life conditions,the one day dollar economies must be a half dollar or no dollar for many years.Is certain a uthopia live in paradise without hard work,but a speculative economy is a devil one.Now all people in the world realizes that must loose money in this round,but is other hidden and unspoken side of the crisis the psicological looses.Many human proyects postponed or never complished.Human life is a no infinit resource and you can dont say people wait for 5 or 6 years all your lifes could improves.Many people is in the bad called “golden years” and whan thing eventually go better perhaps be to late.Paradises only exist in human dreams or uthopia,but a decent economical policies could build a tiny oasis in the actual desert after the Wall Street drama who has extended to all planet
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