Today in The Economist is a post about the financial crisis efects in emergents economies.After reading it seem me that is not clear that emergent economies could be the engine to put out of recesion world economy if the actual industrialized countries headed by american economies enter at end in this condition.The same article give a strong reason the interdepent or globalized ties specially at banking systems.Many emergent tiny countries need financial aid or fresh money to recover after the consecuences of Wall Street problems and the only international institution is FMI but all know that this one was a post II war creation to solve the economies of fifties.I doubt that FMI recipes can solve a generalized “hunger ” for money of emergent economies as eastern eurponean economies as ex URRS countries.Also in latin American countries.Besides the strong medicine solutions can work in the past with many strong men at power as happened in South America in the seventies decade.With a growing international public opinion against schock terapies in economies must be a no viable after the ethic effects of bad practices of banking institution ,today mostly in fact beyond state dependence.Is true that if some countries don growth above certain per year amount as China over 7 % we can see great social discontent of a a population that has enter in consumism wave.For less in other places in the past social riots came.China or Rusia lending money as a new bank barons to other countries?In fact in a new economical lanscape the priority must be internal demands to mantain operating his own economies.Rusia has reserves but with oil price falling must be use this reserves inside the country.
Other aditional problem is in a recesive world China export to USA ,Europe,or emergent economies also
slow his rate.Made in China cars or other industrialized goods has no buyers.The fall in comodities prices in the last month is a first yellow light warning that the emergent economies leaded by great countries as China,India,Brazil or Rusia has not well carburated to replace developped economies leaded by USA.Besides only Rusia and China has internal posiblities to extend without drastic internal political reforms the internal market to replace the international one.
One solution is a political one make a new international economic institutionality with more power to
avoid new world crisis and to sustainable growth.The market to open is the underdevoped markets as
tarjet of world economies.In this frame ONU and other world organization gain and restaure credibility eroded during the last decade.Is utopia?,it posible but in all the human economical history has been inflection moments when economies lost terrain against political revolutionary facts.Is blindness to avoid the influence on French revolution of Paris of the hunger citoyens.Or Russia poor peasant populations aims.
These turning points in societies histories are not ruled by market laws and ignore the first signals could be al least a bad business to the leading elites of rich countries.The history is plenty of other economic groups who vanished as consecuences of noisy or silent revolutions backed by very simple
slogans as Liberty,Equality or Fredoom more powerfull that marketing actual one who call to buy,but you dont can buy when you dont have a productive work,a decent access to education or health.All this is more “dangerous” to free market economies that the actual or repetitive recesives crisis.
EMERGENTS OR FALLING ECONOMIES?